Assume for a moment that every naysayer is exactly right, and AI is the biggest, dumbest economic and social bubble in history of big, dumb bubbles. Its promises are part tulip and part Edsel. A fad mated with a clunker.
It’s still going to erase our existing way of life.
The change is certain, as it’s built into the purpose and applications of AI that we already use as well as imagine. The only uncertainty is when will we – the Great Unwashed who tech titan and AI profiteer Eric Schmidt recently called “normal people” – realize that our world is fundamentally and irrevocably different.
The change is not going to become apparent in specific corporate revenue or earnings reports.
Oddly, academics and consultants are still struggling to find proof in dollar signs for swapping out paper ledgers for digital tools, and such digitalization has been underway for almost a quarter century.
What evades their view is that digitalization has already fundamentally changed businesses and the markets and services that support them (suppliers of capital, materiel, and workforces, for starters). Decisions are better and made faster. Systems run more efficiently and reliably, and problems are identified sooner and often before they even happen.
This transformation touches everyone so profoundly that few people even recognize how different things are today from a generation ago.
The change from AI will also not become apparent from some “aha” announcement that a robot has become conscious (the toffs call the achievement “AGI,” for Artificial General Intelligence). We can’t even explain how consciousness functions or where it resides in humans.
We’re “self-aware” but does that require a self to observe ourselves? After a few thousand years of research and debate, the answer only gets clear after a night of drinking or smoking weed (and promptly disappear the next morning).
AI researchers operate under the false assumption that their machines are silicon version of brains and that something magical will happen when they make said machines complicated enough to do magic.
But AI doesn’t need consciousness or AGI to transform the world, any more than we humans need it to function within it. Most decisions require relevant information, criteria for assessing it, and context in which to place it, full stop.
Deep pondering about the meaning of work or parenting (or just getting through the day)? It happens, but often after-hours and with the assistance of the afore-mentioned booze or weed.
Ditto for the merits of waiting for the next publicity stunt at which a robot can walk on two legs, has two arms, and conjures up memories of a terminator. AI doesn’t need to wait for a body – or ever possess one – to get things done.
Just ask HAL9000.
No, the AI erasure of the old world and its replacement with a new one is and will happen gradually, with evidence of its progress hiding in the oddest ways and places.
For instance, here’s a recent story reporting that a factory robot was coded to try and convince a dozen other robots to go on strike.
It succeeded.
Here’s a story about researchers who believe we should prepare to give AIs rights, including that of survival and well-being. Their research paper is here.
And then there’s Eric Schmidt, who appeared at one of many learned conferences at which learned people harumph their way through convoluted and stillborn narratives about AI, to say that we “normal people” aren’t prepared for what AI is going to do to…I mean for…us.
Maybe our current approach to seeing AI as like the tulip or South Sea crazes, or an imperfect technical tool like an Edsel or laser disc, is indeed our era’s latest bubble, or bubbles.
I think the difference is that AIt going away; rather, they’re going to keep popping up in the strangest and often most interesting places, many of which will evade our attention or understanding.
So, the naysayers are right. They, and we, can’t see how AI is erasing our world and replacing it with something new.
